In the context of continuous CF care improvement and emergence of novel etiologic treatments, we developed a patient-level simulation based on historical patients’ data accounting for the complex interactions between patients’ clinical parameters evolution, innovations in CF care, subpopulations characteristics and treatment adoption.

Model results were validated through comparisons to historical registry data, confidence in forecasts, and estimates for cohort size, adult/child ratio, number of lung transplantations, and living transplanted patients in the upcoming years.

The results illustrate a complete picture of the CF patients’ cohort at any given time between now and 2050. Furthermore, they reveal dramatic expected changes for CF landscape in the next decade: increased patient survival will impact cohort size due to the inclusion of more adult patients, while the improved health of older patients will drive a shift in the paradigm for lung transplantation, keeping numbers stable despite CF cohort growth and ageing.